It seems highly unlikely that Monday night’s defeat to the Oklahoma City Thunder marked the final NBA game for Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James.
The Thunder proved they operate on another level, sweeping the Lakers in four games. James and a hobbled Austin Reaves struggled to compete without Luka Dončić, who missed the entire postseason.
Immediately after the game, speculation surged that this could be James’ last appearance in the league. However, such talk feels significantly premature.
Despite missing the first 14 games of the season due to a sciatica issue in his lower back and right side, James delivered an impressively productive campaign in his 23rd NBA year. Following the Lakers’ exit, he acknowledged that being the third option behind Dončić and Reaves was a new experience in his career, but he refused to label the season a personal failure.
James was exceptional during the Lakers’ first-round playoff victory against the Houston Rockets. Without Dončić and Reaves for much of that series, the 41-year-old veteran provided an unexpected advantage for Los Angeles.
He ended the season averaging 20.9 points, 7.2 assists, and 6.1 rebounds—a far cry from his peak but still far superior to any other player aged 40 or older in NBA history.
According to Polymarket, a prediction market platform, James currently has just a 19% chance of retiring. At 41, James was once again non-committal about his basketball future, continuing a trend seen over the past several seasons. Yet this season demonstrated that he still has enough in the tank, and retirement would feel premature—even though he has nothing left to prove as a four-time champion and the NBA’s all-time leading scorer.
Although James has hinted he’s not eager about the pressure a retirement tour would bring, it’s hard to envision him ending his career without a proper sendoff.
Where Will LeBron Play Next Season?
Polymarket currently shows the Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers tied at 46% probability each to roster James next season.
Obviously, the Lakers are his current team. He has had two stints with the Cavaliers in his hometown of Northeast Ohio, and Cleveland might be better positioned than Los Angeles to help James compete for a fifth championship. The Cavaliers hold a slight edge: a contract there costs 58¢ on the prediction market, compared to 53¢ for a return to the Lakers.
Outside of the Cavaliers and Lakers, no other NBA team has better than a 10% chance of acquiring James this offseason. The Philadelphia 76ers have a 9% chance, while the Utah Jazz, Toronto Raptors, and Indiana Pacers each sit at 4%.
There is decent value on James joining Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors, who currently have only a 3% chance. The Warriors recently extended head coach Steve Kerr for two more years. A contract for James to join Golden State costs 28¢, making it the most expensive option besides the Cavaliers and Lakers.
Expect James to play in the NBA next season. He will either be with the Cavaliers alongside Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, or return to the Lakers, where he would remain the third option behind Reaves and Dončić in a loaded Western Conference.
