Following Benfica’s draw at home against Sporting Braga and Sporting’s victory away to Rio Ave, the Lions have overtaken their eternal rivals in the race for Champions League qualification, climbing to second place with a two-point lead (79 points to 77). This means that if Sporting matches Benfica’s result in the final round, they secure the third preliminary round of the Champions League. In fact, they could even afford to lose or draw, provided Benfica fails to win at Estoril. Meanwhile, José Mourinho’s side must win and hope Sporting does not triumph at Gil Vicente.
Sporting Braga secured fourth place on Monday night, guaranteeing a spot in the second preliminary round of the Conference League—but they can still dream of the Europa League. Here’s how: if Sporting wins the Portuguese Cup, a domino effect occurs. Benfica enters the Europa League league phase directly, Sporting Braga grabs the second preliminary round of the Europa League, and the Conference League berth moves to fifth place, currently held by Famalicão. Hugo Oliveira’s team has 53 points, three more than Gil Vicente, but the Barcelos side holds the head-to-head advantage. For the scenario to change, Gil Vicente must win at Alvalade and hope Famalicão loses to Alverca.
A single goal has completely reshaped the relegation battle. Larrazabal scored in the 87th minute to give Casa Pia a victory away to Vitória Guimarães. Those three points propelled them into the playoff spot on the final day, relegating Tondela to second-to-last and denying Nacional an immediate escape.
Let’s break down the math:
– Nacional lost to Santa Clara and remains on 31 points. They are safe from direct relegation due to a head-to-head advantage over Tondela (28 points). In the last round, they host Vitória Guimarães; a draw guarantees survival, as they hold the advantage in a three-way tie with Estrela Amadora (29) and Casa Pia (29).
– Estrela enters the decisive round outside the danger zone with 29 points but faces a tough trip to Braga. With a head-to-head advantage over Casa Pia (29), a win secures safety. They also survive if they match or better the results of both Casa Pia and Tondela (28).
– Casa Pia (29), which scrambled all calculations in stoppage time, hosts Rio Ave. A win guarantees at least avoiding direct relegation, but could also mean survival if Estrela fails to win. They could drop directly if they lose and Tondela (28) wins.
– There is a possibility of a three-way tie on 29 points among Estrela, Casa Pia, and Tondela. In that scenario, Estrela survives, Tondela goes to the playoff, and Casa Pia is relegated.
– Tondela guarantees survival if they win and both Casa Pia and Estrela lose. Alternatively, they clinch the playoff spot if they achieve a better result than Estrela, thanks to a head-to-head advantage.
